In this review, we are going to take a look at the latest trends in the real estate market in Lisbon. We will tell you about the dynamics of housing prices in the city and its suburbs over the last quarter. We will dive into the details of the cost of buying houses and apartments, as well as their rentals, both long-term and short-term.
Lisbon is a vast area. There are 16 municipalities in the Lisbon region, including the city of Lisbon. The city includes 24 districts. The region has a vast territory, and therefore some of its municipalities are located at a considerable distance from the city of Lisbon itself. Property prices in the municipalities are very often determined by their proximity to the capital.
Dynamics of real estate prices in the Lisbon region
We start our analysis with the statistics provided by Idealista.pt, probably the largest aggregator of real estate listings in Portugal. The main indicator of property value on it is the average price per square meter. This price is calculated on the basis of the listings for sale and rent of apartments or houses published on this site.
At first glance at the selling price chart, it's hard to tell if it reflects a significant change. There is a barely noticeable drawdown in September 2023, followed by a small rise. So it looks like prices eventually returned to the same level by January 2024.
But the situation with rental prices is different. The graph clearly shows growth, and not very even, but stable. A more detailed analysis will help to understand what happened to real estate prices in Greater Lisbon.
Sale of real estate in the municipalities of the Lisbon region
The table above contains information about the average prices per square meter of properties listed on Idealista.pt (first three columns). The fourth column represents the percentage change in prices over the last three months, the fifth column represents the change over the current calendar year. Municipalities are ordered by decreasing average price per square meter in January 2024.
The municipality of Lisbon tops the list by a wide margin. The average price per square meter in January this year was 5.516 euros. Since November, the price per square meter has increased by only 1.66%, and since January last year - by 7.7%.
The capital is followed by Cascais, its most famous suburb on the ocean coast. The price of a square meter there in January 2024 was 4,812 euros, which is slightly higher than the average price in November (by 2.36%). But in one year, since January 2023, the price has increased by 8.6%.
In third place is the municipality of Oeiras with an average cost per square meter in January at 3.954 euros. Compared to November, the price increased by 1.36%, while the annual growth looks rather modest, only by 4.1%.
It is interesting to note that the 3 most expensive municipalities of the Lisbon region are very far from each other: a square meter in Lisbon is more expensive than a meter in Cascais by at least 700 euros. A meter in Cascais is more expensive than a meter in Oeiras by almost 800 euros. But a meter in Oeiras is more expensive than the next municipality Odivelas by more than 1,200 euros!
Odivelas belongs to a group of municipalities with an average cost per square meter between 2,000 and 2,700 euros. This group also includes Loures, Amadora, Mafra, Sintra and Vila Franca de Xira. Prices per square meter in these suburbs of Lisbon over the past three months did not change much: everywhere there was a slight increase, somewhere even on the verge of statistical error. The annual price growth was also moderate. The most significant was in Sintra, by as much as 8.1% since January 2023.
Closing the list are 6 municipalities with an average cost per square meter between 1,100 and 1,800 euros: Torres Vedras, Lourinhã, Arruda do Vinhos, Alenquer, Azambuja and Cadaval. They had more varied quarterly changes (from -3.11 to + 2.33%). They showed the highest annual growth rates in the region, from 9.9% (Torres Vedras) to 13.5% (Azambuja). Only Lourinhã breaks out of the general trend with its 5% annual growth rate.
How reliable are Idealista.pt's statistics?
The information provided by Idealista.pt is extracted from home listings published exclusively on this platform. As this is the price quoted by the seller, it cannot be said with complete certainty that it reflects the real state of affairs. Moreover, some properties may be sold without posting information on this web resource.
To assess the reliability of the data presented, we turn to the detailed report on actual transactions published by the Portuguese National Institute of Statistics. The most recent data available relate to the period from July to September 2023 (Q3). Although we cannot obtain current information at this time, we can analyze the data for the third quarter of 2023 and compare it with data from Idealista.pt. This approach allows us to assess the validity of the numbers reported on Idealista.pt. As an example, let us look at several municipalities in the Lisbon District and compare the average prices per square meter in them.
The table shows the real average price per square meter for the sale of real estate, according to the National Institute of Statistics (column 1), the average price per square meter from ads on Idealista.pt (column 2), and the percentage difference between them (column 3).
All the municipalities under consideration are characterized by an excess of the Idealista.pt price over the price of the National Institute of Statistics. But the size of this excess varies greatly. For example, for Lisbon the difference was 27.85%, for Oeiras — 22.25% and for Sintra — 14.90%. At the same time, in some municipalities the difference was minimal, such as 2.71% in Odivelas and 2.83% in Vila Franca de Xira.
Such strong differences between the data from Idealista.pt and the National Institute of Statistics may have many reasons. One of them could be the different approach to calculating average values. It is also possible that the properties listed on Idealista were listed there in one quarter and actually sold in another. It is also possible that the properties that sold were mostly those where the sellers were willing to reduce the price. In addition, the owners may have started with inflated prices in the expectation of bargaining for a buyer.
Why, despite all these reservations, do we still analyze data from Idealista.pt? Because it is the source of the most up-to-date information. In the absence of more accurate data, these statistics allow us to quickly assess the current situation. Nevertheless, it is important to remember that in real transactions, the conditions may differ significantly from the original statements of the sellers. In any case, the one who wants to buy real estate most favorably, it would be best to consult with a professional real estate agent in Lisbon to learn about all the nuances and pitfalls of buying housing in the capital and suburbs.
Long-term rental of real estate in the municipalities of the Lisbon region
There is less information about suburbs available for rent than those with properties for sale. This site may not have had any updates on Lisbon suburbs for rent between November and January.
Similar to the situation with sale prices, Lisbon is again in the lead, where the average rental price per square meter in January amounted to 21.4 euros. Compared to November, the increase amounted to 2.88%, but since January last year the price has increased by an impressive 17.9%.
Cascais is approaching Lisbon, with the price per square meter in January at 20 euros, a slight decrease compared to November (0.5%) and a rather modest increase compared to last January (10.8%).
In most of the other municipalities surveyed, the quarterly growth rates are quite modest. Loures, where the price did not increase but decreased by 0.78% over the quarter, and Torres Vedras, where the highest growth over 3 months was observed, by 5.38%.
When it comes to year-on-year changes, all the municipalities listed showed growth, from 7.2% in Vila Franca de Xira to an impressive 24.6% in Sintra.
Daily rental properties in the municipalities of the Lisbon region
Given the fact that Lisbon attracts a huge number of tourists, potential real estate buyers may be interested in short-term rental opportunities for tourists in various municipalities of the Lisbon region. After all, the possibility of generating income from such rentals may prove to be a significant aspect when deciding to buy a property.
To get a preliminary estimate of the potential income from short-term rentals, we turn to the All The Rooms service. This service uses data on the average rent per day in each neighborhood and occupancy information for forecasting. We will use the free version of this service, which provides information on the average rent per day in different municipalities of the Lisbon region for the last three months.
The table shows the number of properties published on the AirBnB travel rental service between November 1, 2023, and February 1, 2024, as well as the average price of 1 night's rent for that accommodation.
Unlike the portal Idealista.pt and the National Institute of Statistics, the All the Rooms service does not provide information about the rental value calculated per square meter. The average values presented in the table refer to all possible rental properties, including both villas and studios.
The city of Lisbon remains the absolute leader in terms of affordable rental properties. However, it is behind at least 3 municipalities in terms of the cost of tourist rentals. Cascais is on par with Lisbon in this neighborhood in terms of price. If you are considering buying a home as an investment option, it makes sense to consult a professional realtor who is experienced in dealing with the entire Lisbon region and understands what prospects a particular suburb has in terms of tourist or long-term rentals to find the most favorable option
Real estate for sale in different districts of Lisbon city
The table shows the average prices per square meter of properties listed for sale on Idealista.pt (columns 1-3). Column 4 shows the percentage change in prices over the last three months (rise or fall). Column 5 shows the change over the entire calendar year. Lisbon neighborhoods in the table are ordered by descending average price per square meter in February 2024.
The area with the highest cost per square meter remains Santo António, a small but densely populated neighborhood in the heart of Lisbon. This neighborhood is famous for such landmarks as the Marquês de Pombal Square and Avenida da Liberdade. The average price per square meter here reached 7.683 euros, showing a slight increase for the quarter (0.69%) and an even lower annual growth (0.5%).
This area is followed by Estrela, Misericórdia, Avenidas Novas, Parque das Nações, Santa Maria Maior, Belém and Campo de Ourique with prices of 6,000–6,700 euros per meter. These neighborhoods are located both in the city center and on the outskirts of the city. Some of them are outside the historic center, such as Parque das Nações (Park of Nations), a modern district in the west of the capital. All of these locations have a high status and a long list of attractions. It is likely that potential property buyers in these areas are interested in commercial prospects. Average prices per square meter in these locations have either increased slightly or decreased slightly compared to November 2023 data. All quarterly changes are within -1 to 1%. Over the course of the year, these neighborhoods mostly experienced slight increases in prices per square meter. The Estrela (8.2%) and Parque das Nações (8.4%) neighborhoods were the leaders in terms of annual growth in this group.
The following areas are listed with prices per square meter ranging from 5,100 to 5,900 euros: Alvalade, Alcântara, Arroios, São Vicente, Areeiro. They are located in the heart of the city and can be attractive to different categories of property buyers: both for personal use and for those who see in them the potential for the development of tourist business. Over the quarter, the average prices in these areas did not change much: from -0.33% to 4.87%. In terms of year-on-year changes, Alcântara stands out, with a price drop of 7.2%. This is the largest annual drop in the price of a square meter among all districts of Lisbon. Also in this group are the neighborhoods with the highest annual growth (between 14.5% and 15.1%): São Vicente, Areeiro and Arroios.
The list of areas where the price per meter ranged from 4,100 to 4,800 euros: São Domingos de Benfica, Penha de França, Benfica, Lumiar, Ajuda, Carnide and Santa Clara. Among them, there are both peripheral areas and those closer to the center. In half of them prices have slightly increased compared to August, in the other half — barely noticeable decrease. Only Lumiar stands out, with a quarterly increase of 6.11% and an annual increase of 11.4%.
The list is completed by two districts with a price per square meter between 3.700 and 4.000 euros: Olivais and Marvila. In these areas, there has been a slight decrease in the price per square meter since November last year. At the same time, the price in Marvila has not changed since January 2023, but in Olivais it has increased by 11%.
Now let's take a look at what the rents are like in these parts of the city.
Rental properties in Lisbon city districts
The data in the table above shows that the cost of long-term rentals is constantly increasing. The changes in prices over the quarter are varied: somewhere prices have risen slightly, and somewhere prices have increased significantly or even decreased. Looking at the year-on-year changes, prices have increased in all districts by values ranging from 4.8% (Ajuda) to 31% (Penha de França).
Daily rental properties in Lisbon
Let's take a look at the situation on the short-term rental market using the All The Rooms service. The table below shows the number of properties placed on AirBnB for the period from November 1, 2023, to February 1, 2024, as well as the average cost per night of renting this accommodation.
This table displays information on the average cost per night of tourist accommodation rentals. The main measurement criterion here is the price per night, not the average cost per square meter of accommodation. According to the data presented, the most expensive areas for tourists in Lisbon this winter were Areeiro (153 euros per night), Parque das Nações (151 euros) and Marvila (150 euros). And the largest number of daily rental properties (1,537) are in the Arroios neighborhood. However, some neighborhoods are missing from the All The Rooms data (marked N/A in the table). This may be due to the limitations of the free version of the service, which may not contain complete information about all neighborhoods.
The most expensive and the cheapest properties to buy in February 2024
Idealista.pt currently offers 10,101 homes for sale. However, it is worth noting that among them there may be properties under construction, properties in the planning process or properties requiring major renovation. For the purposes of this review, we are only looking at properties that are ready for immediate occupancy.
Most expensive ones in the Lisbon region today
995.000.000 euros
I think the seller got the number of zeros wrong when posting this ad. Two-storey house of 347 square meters on a plot of 1.651 meters. Garden, swimming pool, various buildings. The bedrooms are either 3 or 5. Bathrooms 4. Energy efficiency class C. Municipality of Sintra.
24.000.000 euros
A luxury estate in Sintra on 42 hectares of land. The house is over 2,500 meters with 10 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. There is a stable and a small equestrian complex. There are also buildings and a swimming pool. Energy efficiency class D. In our review 3 months ago, it was offered for "only" 19 million.
15.000.000 euros
A large house of 706 square meters on a plot of 0.46 hectares. The house has 8 bedrooms and 10 bathrooms, a swimming pool and a garden. Energy efficiency class D. Located in the municipality of Cascais.
Minimal prices on finished homes that you can live in without having to start major renovations right away:
78.000 euros
The house is 45 square meters with one bedroom and one bathroom. Repairs will be needed, but according to the photos, only in the bathroom and kitchen. No energy efficiency certificate. Located in the municipality of Loures.
79.000 euros
A two-storey house of 44 square meters. One bedroom and one bathroom. No energy efficiency certificate. Some repairs are definitely needed, but most of the rooms look decent. Municipality of Torres Vedras.
The most expensive houses in the city of Lisbon
10.000.000 euros
A two-storey house of 1,200 square meters. Six bedrooms and six bathrooms. Plot of 600 meters. There is a garage, swimming pool, garden. Energy efficiency class A. Lisbon, Belém district.
9.500.000 euros
A palace in the Estrela neighborhood. The area of the house is 950 sq.m, the area of the plot is 2.335 sq. m. 21 bedrooms, 9 bathrooms. Garage, central heating, garden. Energy efficiency class C. This ad we saw in the last review for the same price.
8.200.000 euros
A mansion with windows on the Cathedral of Lisbon. Area of 961 sq. m., 5 floors. Elevator, garage, central heating. Building of the 18th century. The decoration is from the "expensive and rich" category. I suspect it's being sold with furniture. Perhaps someone might want to turn it into a hotel. Santa Maria Maior neighborhood. The quarter before last it was for sale for 9 million, last quarter it was reduced to 8.2 million, but still wasn't bought.
The lowest prices for ready-made houses in Lisbon city, where you can live without starting major renovations immediately
125.000 euros
A microscopic house (only 25 square meters) with one bedroom and one bathroom. The plot is 18 square meters. It says that the renovation is finished, but there are no real pictures. It is also stated that the whole neighborhood is being redeveloped and landscaped. Energy efficiency class C. Alcântara neighborhood. Last quarter sold for 144,000 euros.
129.000 euros
A completely renovated two-storey house of 60 square meters, 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. No energy efficiency certificate. Marvila neighborhood.
169.900 euros
A two-storey cabin with 31 square meters. One bedroom and one bathroom. Major renovation in 2017. Energy efficiency class E. Estrela neighborhood
Now let's take a look at the apartments, of which 25.447 are offered on the portal. For example, let's take T2, i.e., apartments with a living room and 2 bedrooms. In this review, I include only properties that are ready for occupancy.
The most expensive apartments:
4.069.013 euros
An apartment of 202 square meters in a luxury house. 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, garage, swimming pool, sauna, gym. Energy efficiency class A. Municipality of Cascais. It is not clear if the house is completed. The advertisement does not indicate that it is a new construction, also no mention of the future availability of the apartment. However, from the photos only renderings.
2.990.000 euros
An apartment of 205 square meters in a luxury residential complex. 2 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, garage. The complex has a swimming pool, sauna, gym and its own area with a garden. Energy efficiency class C. Municipality of Cascais. We saw this same apartment in a review last quarter.
2.500.000 euros
An apartment on the 5th floor in the historic center of Lisbon. Area 255 square meters. 2 bedrooms and 4 bathrooms. Energy efficiency class B. Lisbon, Santa Maria Maior neighborhood.
When searching for the cheapest apartment options, the first ads shown first are those with apartments closed for viewing, apartments with tenants and apartments of which only a part is for sale. There are also more options without a residential license. All of these options I will not show.
Adequate options for living start at:
119.000 euros
Apartment of 77 square meters. 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom. The house was built in 1986. Energy efficiency class D. Municipality of Vila Franca de Xira.
120.000 euros
The apartment has an area of 87 square meters. Located on the 4th floor, there is no elevator in the building. 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom. Balcony. Energy efficiency class C. Municipality of Cadaval.
122.000 euros
Apartment of 58 square meters. The house was built in 1979. 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom. Energy efficiency class C. Municipality of Vila Franca de Xira.
If we talk about apartments in the city of Lisbon, more or less decent options start from:
149.900 euros
Apartment of 33 square meters. 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom. One of the bedrooms is windowless, so it's probably not quite correct to position the accommodation as T2. The apartment used to be a tourist rental. Some renovation will be needed. Energy efficiency class D. Estrela neighborhood.
159.900 euros
The apartment is 79 square meters. Sixth floor in a building without an elevator. 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom. Energy efficiency class C. Santa Clara neighborhood.
What conclusions can be drawn about the state of Lisbon's real estate market this winter
The Lisbon region is considered one of the most attractive regions to live in Portugal. The rate of price growth for long-term rental properties is slightly higher than the rate of price growth for the sale of apartments and houses. Property owners are keen to maximize the benefits of their properties, probably targeting wealthy foreign buyers. However, data from the National Institute of Statistics indicates that actual transactions are being made at lower average prices per square meter than what we see in sellers' advertisements. Even from the analysis of the Idealista website, it is noticeable that the prices per square meter for sale did not increase much in the last quarter.
If we compare with our autumn real estate review, it is noticeable that most of the options for cheap apartments have been updated. But expensive apartments, as well as houses — expensive and cheap — seem to be in much less demand. This quarter we saw both listings where prices were reduced and one listing where the price was increased, and significantly so, but this is unlikely to have had much impact on the statistics.
If you are looking for a house or apartment in Lisbon or the surrounding area, WithPortugal.com can put you in touch with an experienced real estate agent in Greater Lisbon who will help you choose the best solution, whether it is the capital itself or its suburbs. Conveniently, you don't have to search separately for, for example, a realtor in Sintra, Amador, Cascais and other cities in the Lisbon region.
Well, if you're interested in learning about Portugal, you're on the right site! Because here you can find a lot of useful material about all aspects of Portuguese life.
